How Much to Lease a BMW M3 in 2026

Four BMW rows, one direction of travel

The door shuts and the picture comes first: which BMW is actually the goal, and what does the error signal say about holding it for three years? On this site the answer is unusually clean. The cheapest M car has the strongest residual, and every BMW above it leases on a weaker one — though not in sticker order: the i7 is the second-cheapest row and the weakest residual of the four.

Luxemetry carries four BMW rows: M3 Competition, M8, XM, and i7. I do not invent a monthly for the M340i, the M4, the M5, or any CS variant. Those are not calculator rows on this site.

All figures assume 36 months, 10,000 miles a year, a 0.0027 money factor (6.48% comparison shorthand, not loan APR), 10% cash down, capitalized fees, cash fees, and 7.25% tax on the payment. Due at signing is the calculator's 10% down plus fees and the first month. Data snapshot: August 2026. Not dealer quotes.

• M3 Competition. MSRP $86,000. Residual 55% ($47,300). Market adj. −5%. About $1,153 a month. Due at signing $10,953. Cash over the term $51,310.

• M8. MSRP $146,000. Residual 47% ($68,620). Market adj. −10%. About $2,008 a month. Due at signing $17,808. Cash over the term $88,091.

• i7. MSRP $128,000. Residual 42% ($53,760). Market adj. −13%. About $1,812 a month. Due at signing $15,812. Cash over the term $79,215.

• XM. MSRP $162,000. Residual 44% ($71,280). Market adj. −12%. About $2,249 a month. Due at signing $19,649. Cash over the term $98,365.

Official M3 stickers, one site row

BMW USA's M3 sedan page, fetched 30 August 2026, prints five starting MSRPs for the 2027 model year: M340i from $62,300, M340i xDrive from $64,300, M3 from $79,300, M3 Competition from $83,500, and M3 Competition xDrive from $88,600. No lease figure is printed on that page.

This site's one M3 row is $86,000 — between the official Competition and Competition xDrive stickers — with a 55% residual. About $1,153 a month under the assumptions above. I do not scale that number down to fake an M340i payment or up to fake a CS.

The official page is the source for those five stickers. The $1,153 is this site's model, not a BMW Financial Services program. When BMW FS subsidizes the money factor on the M3 — and it periodically does — a real quote can undercut this estimate.

I do not publish an M4, M5, or M340i monthly. Those cars are not calculator rows on this site, and residuals do not transfer across body styles.

The 12% discounts above the M3 are the market grading the residual

Look at the market adjustment column. The M3 transacts about 5% under sticker. The M8 runs 10% under, the XM 12%, the i7 13%. Nobody discounts a car that holds its value — the G63 on this site transacts over sticker on a 72% residual. Double-digit discounts are the showroom pricing in the depreciation before you ever sign.

The residuals agree with the discounts. M3 Competition: 55%. M8: 47%. XM: 44%. i7: 42% — the weakest BMW residual on the site. A lease is a rental of depreciation, so the payment tracks the gap between net price and residual, and that gap widens faster than the sticker climbs.

That is why the i7 — $18,000 cheaper than the M8 at sticker — leases within $200 of it, and why the XM posts the largest BMW payment on the site at $2,249 despite a 12% discount. Three-year modeled retention tells the same story: M3 at 64%, M8 at 53%, XM at 47%, i7 at 43%.

• M3 Competition vs AMG C63. The cross-town rival AMG C63 S E Performance row: MSRP $89,000, residual 50%, about $1,195 a month. The M3 leases $42 cheaper on a $3,000 lower sticker and a five-point stronger residual.

• i7 vs S-Class. The S-Class row: MSRP $121,000, residual 48%, about $1,717 a month. The i7's 42% residual costs it the comparison: $1,812 despite a $7,000 higher sticker being its only excuse.

What three and five years cost beyond the payment

Three-year modeled retention on the M3 Competition is 64%, a loss of $30,960 from the $86,000 sticker. Five-year total cost of ownership at 5,000 miles a year is $74,796, about $1,247 a month — depreciation, insurance at about $2,800 a year, maintenance at about $2,200, fuel, and registration. That is ownership, not a lease payment. Do not stack the two.

The XM's numbers are the cautionary set: $85,860 of modeled depreciation in three years, a 47% retention, and a five-year ownership cost of $141,621 — about $2,360 a month against its $2,249 lease. When the ownership number and the lease number converge like that, the lease is not expensive. The car is.

The i7 is the same lesson in a quieter suit: $72,960 gone in three years on a $128,000 sedan. Leasing an i7 is not a financing choice, it is depreciation insurance.

What I do with a dealer quote

I agree the selling price as if I were paying cash — on these cars the discount is real and I take all of it. Then I ask for the five inputs: capitalized cost, residual percentage for this exact term and mileage, money factor, term, and mileage allowance.

I put those five into the lease calculator. If the formula and the worksheet disagree, a fee is in the deal I have not been shown.

These estimates use 10,000 miles a year. If I need more, the residual falls; buying the miles up front beats paying excess-mileage at return. A large check at signing is prepaid depreciation, not equity.

Three desks: brochure, live row, methodology

I keep three sheets on this desk. BMW USA's M3 Sedan overview is for the official stickers I already quoted. Residual and money factor are not on that page.

The live M3 Competition row is https://luxemetry.com/cars/bmw/m3-competition : $86,000, 55% residual, about $1,153 a month. The M8, i7, and XM rows on this same page are $2,008, $1,812, and $2,249. Same term, miles, and money factor.

How those residuals are built is on https://luxemetry.com/methodology . The 12% discounts above the M3 are the market grading those weaker holds, not a sale.